THE VIBECESSION

When I was growing up, my family owned a contemporary furniture factory

Sometimes I would travel with my grandfather to visit his clients, which were all furniture stores

On one trip near Washington DC, I saw a sign outside one of the stores

On the sign was a story. I remember the story well as it has shaped my thinking as a merchant

Here’s the story-

THE HOT DOG MAN

There was a man who lived by the side of the road and sold hot dogs

He was hard of hearing so he had no radio

He had trouble with his eyes so he read no newspapers

He sold very good hot dogs

He put up signs along the highway and advertised in the newspaper telling how good they were.

He stood on the side of the road and cried: “Buy a hot dog, mister?”

And people bought

He increased his meat and bun orders. He bought a bigger stove to take care of his trade

He finally got his son home from college to help him out

But then something happened

His son said, “Father, haven’t you been listening to the radio and reading the newspapers. There is a big depression. The foreign situation is terrible. The domestic situation is worse”

Whereupon the father thought, “Well, my son’s been to college, he listens to the radio and reads newspapers and he ought to know”

So the father cut down on his meat and bun orders, took down his signs and canceled his newspaper ads and no longer bothered to stand out on the highway to sell his hot dogs

And his hot dog sales fell almost overnight

“You’re right, son,” the father said to the boy

“We certainly are in the middle of a great depression.”

THE FUNDAMENTALS MATTER

Right now, today, we are in a Vibecession

Consumers have been feeling the cumulative effects of inflation that began in 2020

There’s tremendous uncertainty about the future created by recent government actions

The stock market is highly volatile, the U.S. dollar has been sinking, interest rates remain high

And suddenly consumers are weighing every purchase

Retailers are reconsidering every forecast, every product buy

Whether there is or isn’t a recession happening or coming isn’t the question

How people feel drives everything

If you are optimistic about the future, you’ll have an abundance mindset

If you are feeling uncertain, you’ll have a scarcity mindset

The news and the world around us impact how we feel

As a brand or retailer it helps to remember this 👇

You still serve a need, a purpose, whether the U.S. economy is up 2%, flat, or down 2% this year

It helps to focus more on that and less on the headlines

It makes the work that you are doing right now even more important

Creating great products, memorable brand experiences, and delivering value for your customers

Is the thing that will maintain the loyalty

And share of wallet of your audience

Even when things get really hard

Just stay focused on the fundamentals

And keep going!

CHAD’S ROUND-UP

📚 What I read: 11 Rings by Phil Jackson How do you motivate the most talented people on the planet? Phil Jackson coached Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and the 1990s Chicago Bulls to six NBA championships. He then followed that by leading Shaq, Kobe Bryant, and the 2000s LA Lakers to five championships. This doesn’t happen without a plan. His leadership and coaching methods are revealed in this enlightening story full of highs and lows.

🎧 What I heard: Building an Enduring Fashion Brand- She can give the most mundane things a total glow-up. He is the guy who brought casual style to the masses. On this episode of Martha Stewart’s Podcast, Mickey Drexler shares his lessons from leading Gap, J Crew, and Alex Mill. A fascinating convo between two visionary micromanaging leaders who have continued reinventing themselves.

🕵🏻‍♂️ An interesting discovery: Octobre Editions- One of the it-girl brands that has taken over NYC style, Sezanne is a French fashion brand that has a very cool aesthetic. On a trip to Paris, I found their men’s line called Octobre, which I wasn’t aware of. Think Madewell, Todd Snyder, Buck Mason all wrapped into one. Great items spanning workwear and classic menswear. Take all of my money!

That’s all for today

I’m rooting for you!

Chad